European and American economies
2023-12-12
The American Economy >> The sluggish pace of the US economy and labor market remains moderate
The European Economy >> The early recovery momentum of the European economy has declined
In the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the number of positions (8733000, a decrease of 617000 from the previous month) significantly decreased, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. This indicates that the number of positions per unemployed person, i.e., the job multiplier (1.34 times), has been decreasing for six consecutive months, indicating that the easing of supply and demand tension in the labor market is underway.
The ISM non-manufacturing sentiment index for November (52.7, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month) has been rising for three consecutive months. In terms of segmentation, business activities and new orders remain well above 50, while non-manufacturing activities remain strong.
The employment statistics for November show that the impact of labor negotiations in the automotive industry is gradually fading, and the growth rate of employment in the non-agricultural sector (an increase of 199000 people month-on-month) is accelerating. The unemployment rate (3.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous period) and the average weekly working hours (34.4 hours, an increase of 0.1 hours compared to the previous period) have also improved, indicating a good overall employment situation.
The real GDP growth rate of the Eurozone (corrected, decreased by 0.1% month-on-month) remained unchanged from July to September, showing negative growth for three consecutive quarters. According to the clear breakdown of demand items based on the revised values, major demand items such as household consumption and government expenditure have contributed to the growth, while inventory changes are the main reason for negative growth. At the national level, both Germany and France have negative GDP growth.
Germany's mining industry production in October (decreased by 0.4% month on month) has been declining for five consecutive months. The mining industry orders (down 3.7% month on month) have also significantly decreased, with order amounts reaching their lowest level in six months. The downward trend of demand project orders is still ongoing, and there is currently no sign of production activity rebounding.
The Sentix Investor Confidence index for the Eurozone in December (-16.8, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month) has risen for two consecutive months. In terms of segmentation, both the current situation index and the expected index have increased, but the increase in the expected index is very small. From the economic cycle chart, the significant increase in the expectation index in the previous month shows signs of recovery, but the rate of increase in the expectation index has slowed down, and there is a high probability that it will remain in the recession zone.
The European Economy >> The early recovery momentum of the European economy has declined
In the October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the number of positions (8733000, a decrease of 617000 from the previous month) significantly decreased, reaching the lowest level since March 2021. This indicates that the number of positions per unemployed person, i.e., the job multiplier (1.34 times), has been decreasing for six consecutive months, indicating that the easing of supply and demand tension in the labor market is underway.
The ISM non-manufacturing sentiment index for November (52.7, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month) has been rising for three consecutive months. In terms of segmentation, business activities and new orders remain well above 50, while non-manufacturing activities remain strong.
The employment statistics for November show that the impact of labor negotiations in the automotive industry is gradually fading, and the growth rate of employment in the non-agricultural sector (an increase of 199000 people month-on-month) is accelerating. The unemployment rate (3.7%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous period) and the average weekly working hours (34.4 hours, an increase of 0.1 hours compared to the previous period) have also improved, indicating a good overall employment situation.
The real GDP growth rate of the Eurozone (corrected, decreased by 0.1% month-on-month) remained unchanged from July to September, showing negative growth for three consecutive quarters. According to the clear breakdown of demand items based on the revised values, major demand items such as household consumption and government expenditure have contributed to the growth, while inventory changes are the main reason for negative growth. At the national level, both Germany and France have negative GDP growth.
Germany's mining industry production in October (decreased by 0.4% month on month) has been declining for five consecutive months. The mining industry orders (down 3.7% month on month) have also significantly decreased, with order amounts reaching their lowest level in six months. The downward trend of demand project orders is still ongoing, and there is currently no sign of production activity rebounding.
The Sentix Investor Confidence index for the Eurozone in December (-16.8, up 1.8 percentage points from the previous month) has risen for two consecutive months. In terms of segmentation, both the current situation index and the expected index have increased, but the increase in the expected index is very small. From the economic cycle chart, the significant increase in the expectation index in the previous month shows signs of recovery, but the rate of increase in the expectation index has slowed down, and there is a high probability that it will remain in the recession zone.