US stock market: Market outlook for 2024
2023-12-07
■ Expectations for the first half of the year: It is expected that the stock market will maintain horizontal fluctuations from the beginning of the year to the first half of the year, and may experience an increase in the second half of the year.
■ Economic slowdown and expected interest rate cuts: Market speculation about the extent of the US economic slowdown and interest rate cuts will cause stock price fluctuations.
The S&P 500 index in 2023 showed weak growth from the beginning to the first half of the year but showed an upward trend in the second half of the year. In March, due to the bankruptcy of local banks in the United States, the financial system became more unstable and the stock price plummeted sharply. The authorities quickly took measures such as providing liquidity and full deposit protection, effectively alleviating excessive concerns about financial instability and supporting stock prices. As concerns about the decline in performance of American companies due to credit restrictions gradually subsided, and expectations for increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI), the S&P 500 entered an upward trend in the second half of the year.
The outlook for the US stock market in 2024 is expected to remain horizontally volatile from the beginning to the first half of the year while continuing to rise in the second half of the year. The focus is still on the degree of economic slowdown in the United States and market speculation about interest rate cuts. From the beginning to the first half of the year, excessive savings may disappear, and individual consumption, which has shown strong performance so far, may normalize. The growth rate of the United States is expected to slow down between the beginning and the first half of the year, which may be a time to be wary of a decline in earnings per share. Although earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase by 11.0% for the full year of 2024, EPS expansion may be concentrated in the second half of the year, when economic growth is gradually recovering. The market's speculation about interest rate cuts will be conveyed through economic indicators and statements from senior Federal Reserve officials, which may lead to significant fluctuations in stock prices under the expected price-to-earnings ratio (PER). The S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 5000 points, with a year-end forecast of 4700 points.
It is worth noting that March 2024 will usher in the deadline for the Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) established by the Federal Reserve in March 2023. Despite the sharp increase in balance at the time of bank bankruptcy in March 2023, BTFP is still steadily growing, providing liquidity support for small and medium-sized banks. If not extended, it may lead to changes in the market liquidity environment and become a volatile factor in the stock market, requiring vigilance.
■ Economic slowdown and expected interest rate cuts: Market speculation about the extent of the US economic slowdown and interest rate cuts will cause stock price fluctuations.
The S&P 500 index in 2023 showed weak growth from the beginning to the first half of the year but showed an upward trend in the second half of the year. In March, due to the bankruptcy of local banks in the United States, the financial system became more unstable and the stock price plummeted sharply. The authorities quickly took measures such as providing liquidity and full deposit protection, effectively alleviating excessive concerns about financial instability and supporting stock prices. As concerns about the decline in performance of American companies due to credit restrictions gradually subsided, and expectations for increased demand for artificial intelligence (AI), the S&P 500 entered an upward trend in the second half of the year.
The outlook for the US stock market in 2024 is expected to remain horizontally volatile from the beginning to the first half of the year while continuing to rise in the second half of the year. The focus is still on the degree of economic slowdown in the United States and market speculation about interest rate cuts. From the beginning to the first half of the year, excessive savings may disappear, and individual consumption, which has shown strong performance so far, may normalize. The growth rate of the United States is expected to slow down between the beginning and the first half of the year, which may be a time to be wary of a decline in earnings per share. Although earnings per share (EPS) is expected to increase by 11.0% for the full year of 2024, EPS expansion may be concentrated in the second half of the year, when economic growth is gradually recovering. The market's speculation about interest rate cuts will be conveyed through economic indicators and statements from senior Federal Reserve officials, which may lead to significant fluctuations in stock prices under the expected price-to-earnings ratio (PER). The S&P 500 index is expected to rise to 5000 points, with a year-end forecast of 4700 points.
It is worth noting that March 2024 will usher in the deadline for the Bank Term Financing Program (BTFP) established by the Federal Reserve in March 2023. Despite the sharp increase in balance at the time of bank bankruptcy in March 2023, BTFP is still steadily growing, providing liquidity support for small and medium-sized banks. If not extended, it may lead to changes in the market liquidity environment and become a volatile factor in the stock market, requiring vigilance.